The most important statistics you should know

How to use statistics to become the best football bettor

In the dynamic realm of football betting, gaining a competitive edge is no longer about gut feelings or mere intuition. It’s about harnessing the power of data and statistics to make informed decisions that elevate your chances of success. As avid football enthusiasts and bettors, we understand the transformative role that statistics play in shaping outcomes. In this article, we delve into the evolution of statistics in football betting, its increasing importance, and the pivotal role it plays in shaping our betting strategies.

The Evolution of Statistics in football Betting

From Intuition to Data-Driven Decisions

In the not-so-distant past, bettors relied on personal observations or newspaper box scores to gather information. However, the landscape has drastically changed. In 2023, the accessibility of statistics through the internet has revolutionised the betting game. Now, every bettor can access a treasure trove of football betting statistics, providing a wealth of information about teams and players. Therefore data has become the cornerstone of football betting. Having knowledge of statistics is no longer necessarily an asset, it is a requirement to be successful in football betting.

Bookmakers as Data Specialists

Integration of Data Analytics

Bookmakers have embraced data analytics as part of their operations. They now harness vast amounts of historical and real-time data to gain insights into team and player performance, historical trends, and various situational factors. These analytics provide a comprehensive view of the sports events, enabling bookmakers to make more informed decisions when setting odds.

Predictive Modeling and Algorithms:

Next to analytics, bookmakers have integrated predictive modelling and sophisticated algorithms into their systems to move beyond traditional methods. By employing mathematical models, they can assess the probabilities of different outcomes with greater accuracy. This shift towards quantitative analysis has not only improved the precision of odds but has also enabled bookmakers to adapt dynamically to changes in the betting landscape.

Bookmakers are increasingly turning to machine learning applications into predictive analytics to enhance their predictive capabilities. These applications can identify patterns and trends in data that may elude human analysts. Machine learning algorithms continuously refine their predictions based on new information, providing bookmakers with a competitive edge in the ever-changing sports betting landscape.

In-Depth Player Performance Metrics:

Additionally, Bookmakers now delve into granular player performance metrics that go beyond basic statistics. Metrics such as expected goals (xG) in soccer or player efficiency ratings in basketball are integrated into their analyses. These nuanced insights provide a more thorough understanding of individual player contributions, influencing the overall assessment of team probabilities.

With the current technological advancements going on it is highly likely that bookmakers will continuously strive to improve its technological prowess to increase profitability and exploit less informed bettors. For more info on how bookmarks make money, read on here(link to bookmaker article)

Clearly, bookmakers are on top of their game when it comes to football predictions. Therefore it is crucial that you as a bettor are as well.

The Most Important Match Related Statistics and How to Use Them As A Football Bettor

There is a plethora of data and statistics at your fingertips nowadays with the internet and open access to data. Football, being the most popular sport globally, has incredible amounts of detailed data available. A large portion of this data is freely downloadable. It can be quite overwhelming and therefore we provide you with an overview of the most crucial statistics that you as a football bettor should know.

Team Data

• Latest Team Form: Keeping on top of the latest team form involves analysing recent performances, understanding winning streaks, and identifying patterns.
• Relative Team Strength: Defining a team’s relative strength within the league requires comparing performance metrics against each other. You can calculate your own metrics based on goals scored, goals conceded and points calculated or use online available metrics.
• Team News: Staying updated on team news is paramount, especially concerning injuries and suspensions that may impact match outcomes. It is not all numbers that are factored into, qualitative data like team news is crucial to be aware of as a bettor as well.

Player Data

• Top-Performing Players: Utilising player data involves identifying consistently high-performing players and understanding their impact. Metrics such as expected goals(xG) and expected assists(xA) can provide valuable insights into which players are over and underperforming. If a team’s star player is in a slump it could be an opportunity to bet for the opponent instead.
• Latest Player Statistics: Regularly update yourself on the latest player statistics to obtain insights into individual player dynamics. Go beyond goals and assists but also more advanced statistics such as xG, xA, successful forward passes, attacking and defensive contributions etc.

Match Data

• Specific Team and Player News: Staying informed about specific team and player news for upcoming matches aids in anticipating performance shifts.
• Injuries and Suspensions: Awareness of injuries and suspensions affecting specific matches is crucial in predicting outcomes.
• Team Dynamics and Tactics: Understanding how team dynamics and tactics can influence match results adds a strategic layer to betting decisions.
• An extra interesting team statistic is head to head statistics for teams. Quite interesting patterns emerge, for example, top side PSV did not manage to win away at mid table side Heerenveen for 10 years before they emerged victorious again in 2022.

Statistical Concepts to Elevate Your Betting Prowess

Moving beyond specific match statistics, it is vital to grasp key statistical concepts that underpin advanced betting strategies. Familiarity with these concepts will enhance your decision making prowess when betting and are fundamental to a successful and profitable betting strategy in the long term.

Expected Value

The concept of expected value (EV) serves as a foundational principle in the realm of betting, providing a systematic framework for to assess the potential profitability of your bets. Expected value is a mathematical calculation that represents the average expected outcome of a bet over the long term, factoring in both the likelihood of winning and the associated payouts.

Understanding Expected Value:

The expected value of a bet is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning (P) by the potential payout (W), subtracting the probability of losing (1 – P) multiplied by the amount wagered (L). The formula is expressed as follows:

EV=(P×W)−((1−P)×L)

So take the following case:

Win probability: 90% or 0.9

Payout: £20

Stake: £10

The formula will become (0.9×20)-((1-0.1)×10) = 9 so your expected value is £9.

A positive expected value (+EV) indicates that, on average, the bet is expected to yield a profit over the long term. Conversely, a negative expected value (-EV) suggests that, on average, the bet is expected to result in a loss. Your goal as a bettor is thus to find positive expected value bets to ensure that you are profitable.

To quickly calculate if your betting choice has a positive expected value you can use the bookmakers odds. Convert the odds to decimal format(2.0) , take the inverse(1/decimal odds) and if your calculated probability is higher than the implied probability you have found a positive EV bet.

Using expected value as a bettor

Expected value serves as a tool to balance risk and reward. It can help you make rational decisions based on a quantitative assessment of potential outcomes. By avoiding negative expected value bets and focusing on those with positive expected value, you can maximize profitability while managing risk. While individual bets can result in wins or losses, the concept of expected value is most relevant when viewed over the long term. Even if a bet with positive expected value loses, you can trust that, with consistent application of EV principles, the overall outcome will be profitable.

Limitations and Considerations:

Expected value is a probabilistic concept, and actual outcomes can deviate in the short term due to factors like luck, unexpected events, or variance. To be successful in applying the concept you need to understand the importance of evaluating EV over a large sample size. Furthermore bookmakers frequently adjust odds based on market conditions and new information. The assessed probability of an outcome must consider these dynamic changes to make accurate EV assessments.

Variance

Variance is a statistical concept that plays a pivotal role in the realm of betting, influencing the degree of unpredictability and fluctuations in outcomes. In betting, variance refers to the dispersion or spread of results around the expected value, representing the level of risk and uncertainty associated with a series of wagers.

While expected value (EV) represents the average outcome over the long term, variance accounts for the range of potential outcomes and their deviation from this average. A high-variance scenario indicates a wider spread of potential results, encompassing both significant wins and losses, while low variance suggests more stable and predictable outcomes.

Impact on Bankroll Management and betting strategy:

Understanding variance is crucial for effective bankroll management. High-variance bets can lead to severe swings in your bankroll necessitating careful risk management to withstand potential losing streaks and capitalise on winning streaks without risking excessive amounts.Variance is more evident in the short term, where individual bets can produce unpredictable outcomes. However, over the long term actual results gravitate towards the expected values.

In your betting strategy you should take into account the implications of high and low variance bets. The type of bets you place can have an influence, such that betting on underdogs or in accumulators is associated with higher variance than favourite bets. Choose for yourself whether you prefer high wins and large losses or a more conservative approach.

Uncertainty in Short-Term Outcomes:

In the short term, variance introduces an element of uncertainty, and individual bets may produce unexpected results. It is important to acknowledge that short-term variability is inherent in the unpredictability of sports events.
It is therefore crucial to adapt your strategies based on the context of each bet. Recognizing when to embrace higher variance for strategic reasons and when to prioritise stability contributes to a more nuanced and effective betting approach.

Law of Large Numbers

The Law of Large Numbers is a statistical principle that holds significant relevance in the context of betting, providing a fundamental understanding of the relationship between probability and outcomes over a large sample size. This law asserts that as the number of independent trials or observations increases, the average of the observed values converges towards the expected value.

In the realm of betting, grasping the implications of the Law of Large Numbers is crucial for bettors seeking to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively. In other words, over a sufficiently large sample size, the actual outcomes approach the expected outcomes. This then underscores the long-term predictability of outcomes when based on probability. Over many trials, the total results tend to align with your calculated probabilities barring your calculations being accurate.

Implications on betting

As a bettor you will encounter inherent variability and unpredictability in the short term. The Law of Large Numbers provides a reassuring perspective, indicating that over an extended series of bets, the impact of short-term fluctuations diminishes, and the actual outcomes more closely reflect the expected probabilities. Therefore, you can use large sample sizes to thoroughly test your expected value calculations and see if the actual data converges with your probability calculations as they should. To be entirely sure, aim for at least a few hundred but ideally a few thousand of observations for strong results.

Quantifying Edge and Skill:

If you think you have identified edges in the betting market, the Law of Large Numbers provides a framework for testing your edge over time. Skillful analysis, consistent decision-making, and an adherence to positive expected value contribute to a long term winning strategy where actual results converge towards expected outcomes.

Limitations and Considerations:

The Law of Large Numbers assumes that each trial or observation is independent. In sports betting, this assumption may be challenged when factors such as team dynamics, player injuries, or market influences create dependencies between events. And while the Law of Large Numbers is a powerful statistical concept, practical application in sports betting involves challenges. You may not have the luxury of an infinite number of bets, this way it is always important to have a solid decision-making process within the constraints of available data.

How the Hunch Club uses statistics to beat the bookmakers

We can understand your head is spinning after all these data and statistics being thrown at you. You definitely do not have to completely understand everything that is written in this article from the get go. A grasp of the basic concept and the importance is already a big step forward.

If you are ready to take the next step in your betting journey by incorporating these statistics in your analysis, do not hesitate to join our free community here. In our community we daily post the best tips based on AI and machine learning powered betting algorithms that take countless team and player related variables into its models. We also try to help our members increase their grasp of betting through frequent content and information updates.