Euro 2024 Semi Final: Spain – France

We are reaching the concluding stages of the Euro 2024 as tonight Spain and France commence the semi finals. It is difficult to decide a favourite as despite Spain arguably being the best playing team at the tournament, France are yet to concede a goal from open play this tournament. 

Spain Team News

Spain have some problems ahead of the clash as both Carvajal and Le Normand will be suspended. Le Normand picked up his 2nd yellow card of the tournament against Germany while Carvajal received a 2nd yellow card in the dying seconds of the extra time in that same game. This probably means that Nacho returns to the starting line up while on right back it will be puzzling to see what de La Fuente will choose. Also Pedri will not feature in the game tonight as the midfielder has picked up an injury following Toni Kroos his tackle. He will miss the rest of the tournament and Dani Olmo will be his replacement. 

France Team News

France have a fully available squad ahead of the game as Deschamps has been considering a change of formation ahead of the game. Adrien Rabiot will be available again after he was suspended in the quarter final game against Portugal. Mbappe was visibly uncomfortable with his mask and nose injury during the game but it is unlikely that Deschamps will bench his star player. 

Spain Form

Spain of course have been hailed as the best playing team of the tournament with only victories so far(albeit in extra time against Germany). Their wingers have been very exciting with a lot of danger and creativity coming from Williams and Lamal who have been nightmares for their fullback opponents at times. The Spanish have scored the most goals of all the teams in the tournament but also only just conceded 2 goals so far. With one of those goals being an own goal as well. 

France Form

France have had a very sloppy tournament attacking wise, as they still are to score from open play. They have scored just 3 goals in total in 5 games, with 2 of these 3 goals being an own goal and the 3rd a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland. Their game plan seems suitable though for the game against Spain as they can sit back and hit strong on the counter attack against a very attacking spanish sides that misses a few players at the back. 

What do the stats say?

  • France have won 4 out of 5 games on tournaments against Spain
  • The last 5 games saw 2 wins for Spain, 2 wins for France and a draw
  • 6 of the last 8 games between these 2 sides saw at least 1 side take a clean sheet

Our verdict

The probabilities of who goes through could probably be very similar to those of a coin toss. Spain could be quite favourites because they are playing very well and fluidly but their game plan could suit France perfectly to sit back and strike. It could very well be a game with a lot of possession and dominance from Spain but one France counter prove to be lethal for the Spanish. If France finally get in full force we see them take the win tonight. 

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