The Psychology of Gambling: how to keep your head cool

Safely riding the emotional rollercoaster of sports betting

Sports betting can be an emotional rollercoaster. The highs of winning and lows of losing, coupled with the inherent unpredictability of sports, makes it easy to lose your cool and let emotions impact your betting decisions. However, if you want to be successful in sports betting it will require you to develop emotional control and remove feelings from the equation as much as possible. This article will provide tips and strategies for keeping a level head while betting so that you are optimally prepared to handle winning/losing streaks, build resilience, and avoid common psychological pitfalls. Mastering your mindset is just as crucial as your knowledge of the sport you are betting on.

Have a System to Rely On

Having a defined system, methodology, or set of rules to follow takes much of the emotion out of betting. Without a plan, you’re prone to making impulsive bets based on gut feelings, which rarely ends well. Your system will be the basis that you fall back on at any time. A well defined system should specify things like:

• Bankroll Management:

Clearly define the size of your bankroll and establish rules for how much to wager on each bet. This includes determining the percentage of the bankroll to allocate per wager, avoiding overexposure and ensuring longevity in the betting journey.

• Research and Analysis:

In-depth research is the bedrock of a successful system. Analyse team statistics, player performance, historical trends, and relevant factors influencing the outcome of an event. Stay updated on team news, injuries, and other game-changing information to make well-informed decisions.

• Selection Criteria:

Develop a set of criteria for selecting bets. This could involve identifying value bets, focusing on specific markets, or utilising statistical models to assess probabilities. The selection criteria should align with your overall goals and risk tolerance as a bettor. Also have criteria on when to stop gambling. Examples of this could include: Stop for the day or week if you have 5 losing bets in a row or have a maximum of 10 bets per day you can play on. This will also make you more selective in the bets you choose, which can positively improve performance as well.

• Record-Keeping:

Maintain meticulous records of all bets placed. Track performance, analyse results, and identify patterns. This not only facilitates accountability but also provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of the system and areas for improvement. You can use excel sheets or specific betting tracking tools to track your bets. Whatever is easiest for you to maintain throughout the whole process.

• Continuous Learning:

Stay informed about evolving betting strategies, market trends, and new statistical models. Continuous learning ensures that the system remains dynamic and can adapt to changes in the sports betting landscape. Tipster services can be a great source for this. At the Hunch Club for example, we post regular content on strategies and statistics to help your betting decisions and serve as a guide to you when you are designing your system.

Thorough research and testing is required to develop a profitable system. But once created, strictly follow it. Resist tilting your bets or changing your approach during emotional periods. Remember that variance is normal in betting, so stay committed to your process through ups and downs.

Limit the Influence of Variance

Sports betting outcomes involve a large element of chance. Results will vary wildly in the short term even if your process is sound. It can perfectly happen that you lose 10 bets in a row just because of pure statistical randomness. These wild swings are the main cause of emotional swings and can impact you deeply on an emotional level. Therefore if you can control the variance in your bets you indirectly can exert control over your emotions in the process. Variance is inherent to betting and you can never fully eliminate it but there definitely are a few techniques to limit the impact of variance on you as a bettor. The following techniques can be useful:

• Track results long term: Look at overall profit/loss rather than individual bets.This enables you to become less focused on individual bets/days.
• Sufficient bankroll: Have enough funds so short term swings seem small and that you can handle them easily with peace of mind.
• Do not use money that you cannot miss: seems an obvious recommendation but oftentimes ignored. If your ability to pay the bills depends on the results of your betting systems you are in trouble and should definitely reconsider your strategy.
• Focus on process: Did you follow your system correctly? That’s what matters. Meticulously develop your system and continuously seek to improve it through online research and analysing your results and mistakes.
• Think long-term: Short term variance will even out over time. Everyone will have losing days, losing weeks and even losing months, as long as you see a general upward trend you know you are on the right track.

Bankroll management as a sports bettor

Bankroll management is crucial as a sports bettor to help guide your decisions when you are overly emotional.

Bankroll management begins with a clear definition of the total amount of money you invest for betting purposes. This sum, known as the bankroll, represents the financial foundation upon which all betting decisions are anchored. After you have decided your maximum bankroll, it is important to set specific limits for individual wagers. This may be expressed as a percentage of the total bankroll per bet, such as 1-2%. Establishing these limits ensures that no single wager can overly impact the overall bankroll, protecting against significant financial setbacks.

Lastly , key in bankroll management is avoiding overexposure by using predetermined wagering limits. This way you are able to protect your money during inevitable losing streaks. Nowadays, most bookmakers allow you to implement maximum limits into your account which subsequently are very difficult and cumbersome to change in your account. This way you can rationally set your playing limits to ensure that you do not go overboard. This conservative approach contributes to the sustainability of your profitability as a sports bettor.

Staking Strategy

Together with a proper bankroll management strategy, having a predetermined staking strategy can help you to stay clear of some of the pitfalls that bettors run into. Down below are some of the decisions to make regarding your staking strategy.

• Fixed Stakes vs. Variable Stakes:

One key decision within staking strategy is whether to employ fixed or variable stakes. Fixed staking involves consistently wagering the same amount per bet, providing a stable approach. Variable staking, on the other hand, adjusts the wager size based on factors such as perceived value or confidence in a particular bet.

• Kelly Criterion:

The Kelly Criterion is a widely used formula for determining the optimal size of a series of bets. It takes into account the probability of winning and the odds offered, providing a calculated recommendation on the percentage of the bankroll to stake. While a powerful tool, the Kelly Criterion requires accurate probability assessments to be effective. Use it as a guideline but never blindly follow the suggested staking sizes.

• Progressive Staking:

Progressive staking strategies, such as the Martingale system, involve adjusting the stake size based on the outcome of the previous bet. While these strategies can be enticing, they come with inherent risks, as a series of losses can result in exponentially increasing wager sizes.Generally we at the Hunch Club recommend you to stay away from this staking strategy.

• Balancing Aggressiveness:

Choosing a staking strategy requires a delicate balance between aggressiveness and conservatism. Aggressive strategies can boost your profits during winning streaks but can lead to significant losses during downturns. Conservative strategies prioritise capital preservation but they can limit you in terms of potential profits. Tweak your approach to your individual preferences but always remain sensible and preserve your money.

Emotional Control

Controlling emotions is arguably the most vital skill in betting. Success requires a stoic, detached mindset. Log all bets objectively like a robot, win or lose. Never bet while overly excited, angry, sad, stressed etc. as it clouds judgement. Meditation, self-awareness, and breathing exercises can help achieve an emotionally balanced state for betting.

Don’t Chase Losses

Chasing losses by betting bigger to recoup previous losses is gambling’s death spiral. Losing streaks happen to every bettor due to variance. Accept it, stick to your system, and the tide will eventually turn. Clearly define stop points, such as 50% of starting bankroll, to prevent destructive chasing.

Handling Winning/Losing Streaks as a sports bettor

Betting produces extreme highs after wins and lows after losses. Successfully navigating these inevitable swings in either direction requires perspective and discipline. How well you can handle these emotional swings will be a very important indicator of your success as a sports bettor.

Don’t panic or lose confidence after losses. Review your process, but realise variance causes streaks. Temporarily reducing stakes can help coping. Most importantly, stick to your system rather than desperately changing approaches to force wins. Thoroughly test your system and always be open to tweak it but once you have a proper system in place do not abandon it after a few days of losses. Even the best systems have losing months in them.

Similarly, avoid becoming overconfident and reckless when winning. Don’t increase stakes or make wild bets thinking you’re unstoppable. Stay grounded in your process, manage bankroll wisely, and expect regression toward the mean. This way you prevent yourself from overexposing your money to sudden streaks of bad luck. It can be very easy to offset all your profits and hard work with a few large reckless bets suddenly not going your way, eating away your money.

Build Emotional Resilience

There are definitely some techniques and tactics available for you as a bettor to help build your emotional resilience. This emotional resilience will help you stay on your path when it seems tempting to deviate.

• Having a sizable bankroll to withstand variance and losses without going broke. Knowing that you can handle a potential downturn and the money that is at stake is not crucial for your daily existence will largely alleviate the stress of sports betting. Do not be foolish and use money that you need for rent or food for betting.
• Fostering a stoic mindset focused on process not short term results. Setbacks are expected and temporary. If you can let yourself be unfazed by these setbacks you are in a good spot to progress as a sports bettor.
• Maintaining positive physical health supports mental stamina. Get adequate sleep, nutrition and exercise. Just like your general mental well being as a human. A healthy lifestyle will help you think clearer and more rational.
• Taking breaks restores a detached perspective. Unwinding is essential for sustaining betting efforts. Take deliberate days/weekends or even weeks off where you do not think about any betting but just relax and enjoy the time off, maybe just watch the sports without any betting strings attached.

Summary of Strategies

As you can see, there is a wide range of strategies you can use to keep your head cool as a bettor. This is an overview of the most important ones that we discussed.

• Have a defined, proven betting system and follow it strictly.
• Limit variance its emotional impact by tracking long term results, using appropriate bankroll and staking, and focusing on process over outcomes.
• Establish clear stop points for chasing losses and withdrawing winnings.
• Achieve emotional balance through self-awareness, meditation, breathing exercises. Never bet overly emotional.
• Walk away during extreme winning/losing streaks to regain composure and perspective. Expect and accept variance.
• Build resilience through proper bankroll management, stoic mindset, physical health, and taking breaks when needed.

Conclusion

Emotions are every bettor’s worst enemy. Losing streaks generate frustration while winning produces overconfidence, both damaging discipline. Having a proven system provides structure, but inner mental strength is required to stick with it through ups and downs. Develop self-awareness of emotional triggers. Achieve balance through relaxation techniques and taking breaks when needed. With emotional mastery, you can bet rationally for long-term profits. Armed with the Hunch Club´s daily bet tips you can ensure that you keep your bet decisions free from emotion.