Asia Cup 2023, who will achieve eternal glory?
Just like the Africa Cup, the Asia cup is reaching its final stages with the quarter finals scheduled for this weekend. Several top players in European Competitions are featuring on the tournament with the likes of Minamino, Son and Endo all competing for the trophy. The tournament has seen some minor upsets with Tajikistan reaching the quarter final for example. However, most big teams are still left in the competition, with the clash between Australia and South Korea in the upcoming quarter finals especially interesting.
Which teams can still win the trophy?
The three main favourites before the tournament are all still in contention, Australia and South Korea face each other in a tight quarter final clash on the 2nd of February while Japan and Iran face off in another exciting contest. With 4 strong teams facing each other in the quarterfinals, other teams such as Qatar and Jordan fancy their chances of reaching the Semi Final. Qatar will face Uzbekistan in the Quarter final before potentially playing the winner of Japan-Iran while Jordan would have to overcome undefeated Tadjikistan in the quarter finals to set up a clash with the winner of Australia-South Korea.
Who is the favourite to win?
Japan and South Korea have been considered firm favourites beforehand with both teams reaching the knockout stage of the 2022 world cup. Other strong teams include Australia and Iran. However, since these 4 teams face eachother in the quarter final, things mght get complicated in terms of winning chances. Based on the simulations of the matches we have the following list of favourites.
| Team | Probability to lift the trophy |
| Japan | 20.4% |
| Australia | 20.4% |
| South Korea | 16.3% |
| Qatar | 16.2% |
| Iran | 14.8% |
| Uzbekistan | 5.0% |
| Jordan | 4.3% |
| Tajikistan | 2.6% |
Based on the data we thus see that Japan and Australia are favourites to win the title, closely followed by South Korea,Qatar and Iran. Quite striking is the small differences in probabilities between the top 5 teams. It is difficult to indicate a clear favourite at the moment. However, if we look at the bookmakers´ predictions we see a different pattern.
| Team | Average Odds |
| Japan | 2.51 |
| South Korea | 3.89 |
| Australia | 5.92 |
| Iran | 7.27 |
| Qatar | 11.05 |
| Uzbekistan | 18.05 |
| Jordan | 23.60 |
| Tajikistan | 59.25 |
If we compare the odds and simulated probabilities then there is definitely some value in betting for Australia or Qatar as their odds relative to their winning probabilities are quite high. A Japan-South Korea final is the clear outcome predicted by the bookies with Australia and Iran following in quite a distance.
To sum up, it is definitely not an easy task to predict this year’s asian cup winner. Based on the draw a dream final between betting favourites Japan and South Korea 2 is still a possibility and would guarantee an exciting match up. Both teams have not won the competition in a very long time as South Korea would be looking to win their first title since 1960 whereas Japan have waited since 2011. Australia, Iran and defending champion Qatar however can definitley not be ruled out for a spot in the final and we will see some fireworks in the quarter finals coming up.
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