Who are the favourites for this year’s Champions League?
The Champions League is back, and how! After a 2 month break we are back with 4 great clashes in the coming week with Real Madrid, title holders Manchester City and PSG and Bayern all scheduled to play in the coming days. With the knockout stages finally underway the classic question arises, who will win the coveted Champions League Trophy in 2024. Will PSG finally see their hunt for the Champions League end in a success or do we see another Real Madrid victory.
Usual suspects in the mix
Despite some upsets in the group stage happening, most of the clubs still left with a serious chance to win the competition are the usual suspects. Bayern, Internazionale,Manchester City, PSG and Real Madrid are looking to go all the way again.
Based on extensive simulations off the current draw and possible future matchups the following teams are considered favourites to win this year’s Champions League.
| Team | Probability to win the trophy |
| Manchester City | 31.56% |
| Real Madrid | 16.63% |
| Bayern Munich | 11.50% |
| Internazionale | 10.89% |
| Arsenal | 6.23% |
| PSG | 5.87% |
| Atletico Madrid | 3.47% |
| FC Barcelona | 3.47% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.98% |
| Real Sociedad | 1.76% |
Manchester City are clear favourites to extend their reign in Europe with almost ⅓ a chance to win the trophy. Real Madrid,Bayern and Internazionale are other strong candidates to win the competition, with especially Real Madrid and Bayern being regular outfits in the latter stages of this competition. FC Barcelona, PSG and Dortmund their chances have suffered because of recent dips in their form although each of them would fancy their chances to reach the quarter finals with the current draw.
What do the bookmakers predict?
Another great indicator of what teams are considered favourites are the betting odds. Bookmakers use advanced statistical analysis and incorporate the latest news to calculate their odds. These odds are a strong indicator of the actual probabilities of the event to happen. In the case of the Champions League, the bookmakers have the following favourites.
| Team | Average Odds |
| Manchester City | 2.92 |
| Bayern Munich | 5.05 |
| Real Madrid | 6.40 |
| Arsenal | 6.70 |
| PSG | 13.00 |
| Barcelona | 16.60 |
| Internazionale | 18.20 |
| Atletico Madrid | 26.00 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 27.20 |
| Napoli | 54.20 |
Again Manchester City are bombarded as clear favourites with Bayern and Real in 2nd and 3rd. Internazionale are not considered as a strong threat by the bookmakers, which actually make their odds quite valuable based on their team strengths. Arsenal though are well liked by the bookies and closely follow Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.
Who will win?
Manchester City seem to have a good chance to win their 2nd Champions League in a row. Facing FC Copenhagen in the last 16 they will most likely easily advance to the quarter final. Bayern,Real Madrid and Arsenal have a good draw. One of the clashes we personally look forward to is the Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid match, which seems to be the tightest match up of this year´s last 16.