European Championship: Group A Final Showdown

After 9 days of football we have reached the culminating stage of the group stage this European Championships. Hosts Germany are already certain of the last 16 and will play their neighbours Switzerland in the last game in Frankfurt. In Stuttgart at the same time, Scotland will show off with Hungary to fight for their last chance of proceeding to the knockout stage of a Euro or World Championship for the first time in their history. 

What are the scenarios and who are the favourites to go through?

Match 1: Germany – Switzerland

Germany are already through after 2 wins in their first 2 matches. For Switzerland, with 4 points after 2 games, the chances of being eliminated are virtually 0. The game tonight will be solely for the group win as a draw or Germany win would send Germany through as number 1 while a Switzerland win would mean that Germany surprisingly would end in 2nd position. 

Germany are favourites to win the match with around 60% chance of winning while a draw in around 21% of the cases happening and a Switzerland win in 19% of the cases happening. Germany will continue playing their attacking football but of course if a draw looks likely in the end of the match it will be good enough to settle for to keep the Swiss at bay. 

Match 2: Scotland – Hungary

Both teams in theory still have a chance of reaching the Last 16. However, Hungary, with 0 points after 2 matches only have a theoretical chance, as they would need to win the match with a large margin and hope that other group results are favourable towards them. Scotland will be happy with the point they took against Switzerland as it means that a win against Hungary almost certainly will be enough for them to go through to the last 16. It would be the first time in history for Scotland to reach the knockout stage in a major tournament. 

The match is expected to be fairly balanced, with both teams having a chance of around 37% to win the match and a draw expected to be happening in around 25% of the cases.

Scenarios

Given that both matches have 3 possible outcomes there are 9 different combinations possible for these 2 games tonight. 

If Germany wins or draws, Germany are guaranteed first place, otherwise they will be 2nd behind switzerland but still go through. 

If Hungary wins or draws, Switzerland are guaranteed 2nd place. If Scotland wins and Switzerland loses, goal difference will decide who will be 2nd. The goal difference is highly in favour of Switzerland but 2 big scores tonight could change that. 

All in all, it looks very likely that Germany finish first, Switzerland second and Scotland third. If Scotland scrap a win they will be almost guaranteed a place in the last 16. Otherwise, only Germany and Switzerland will continue from this group.