European Championship: Group C Final Showdown

For the first time in 3 days we will not only have evening matches as Group D will be decided at 18.00  before the unfolding of group C takes place at 21.00. In this group, favourites England are in pole position but Southgate´s men have been unconvincing so far. A sober 1-0 victory over Serbia and a very hard fought 1-1 draw against Denmark mean that England will go through as number 1 if tehy beat Slovenia, which they should be able to you would say normally. The other spots in the group are wide open with Denmark and Slovenia both on 2 points and Serbia on 1 point. 

Match 1: Denmark – Serbia

Denmark will be hoping to replicate their previous Euro performance as scandinavians reached the semi final last time. A heartbreaking extra time loss against fellow Group C team England meant that the Danish were out of the Euro´s. Tonight they will need a result against Serbia to go through as also the Danish have failed to impress in this euro tournament so far. Against Slovenia the Danish were leading for most of the match but failed to take full control of the match and saw Slovenia coming back in the last 15 minutes. Their 2nd performance was more convincing as they were playing strong against England last week Thursday. 

Serbia are also yet to live up to their potential in this tournament. Against England they might have lost slightly unlucky as they were not playing worse than the English but Bellingham´s early goal made the difference that day. Against Slovenia, Serbia had lots of trouble and really did not seem to get away with anything, only for Luka Jovic to salvage the Serbians in the 95th minute to keep their hopes alive. 

Denmark are projected to have a 44.7% chance of winning this match, which would put them through to the next round for sure with 5 points. A draw(25.4% chance) could be enough for Denmark but this depends on the results in the other groups as well. Serbia would need a win to go through and are looking to do so in 29.8% of the cases. 

Match 2: England – Slovenia

England were bombarded as the pre tournmanet favourites as Gareth Southgate´s squads boasts a wealth of talent, especially up front with the likes of Bellingham, Foden and Kane. A telling stat is the fact that Premier League revelation Cole Palmer has not featured a single minute yet this tournament. Their first 2 appearances have not given very much hope for Football to come home finally this year. Serbia was beat unconvincingly where Serbia had some decent chances to nick a draw. The 2nd game was difficult as well, as Denmark pushed for a win in a lacklustre performance of England that was just enough to earn a 1-1 draw. 

Slovenia have been surprisingly stubborn in this tournament so far. Where most people would have thought the Slovenians to be 4th in this group, they have played very well so far and earned well deserved draws against Serbia and Denmark so far. They will feel that it should have been more however, especially given the heartbreak of Serbia´s 95th minute equaliser. If that goal had not been scored Slovenia would have been sure of the last 16 already but now would likely need to salvage a result against England to have a chance to go through. 

England are projected to win in 66.5% of the simulations while Slovenia have a 14.2% chance of winning. A win would definitely be enough for Slovenia to go through, with a draw it would depend on the results on the other fields but it could be likely that 3 points are enough this year to earn a spot among the top 4 placed number 3 teams. 

Scenarios

If England wins they are sure to top the group. If they draw and Denmark do not win they are also number 1. If England draws against Slovenia and Denmark wins with sufficient goal margin then Denmark will take over first place. 

Serbia cannot finish in first place anymore but a win and an england win would mean the Serbians finish in 2nd place. A draw will not be enough for Serbia to go through to the next round. 

Slovenia can stir up the dynamics in the group by beating England, which could take them to first place depending on the result of Denmark. Slovenia can still finish in any position in the group.

Denmark, just like Slovenia still can finish in every spot of the group. A loss against Serbia and a win or draw of Slovenia would mean Denmark finish 4th while a win against Serbia and a Slovenia draw against England would put Denmark in front if their goal difference is good enough.