Who will win the Africa cup?
The 2024 Africa Cup in Ivory Coast is now reaching the decisive stages with the Quarter Finals soon to be played. The tournament has been full of surprises with the latest surprise seeing top favourite Morroco crashing out in the last 16. The Atlas Lions could not get past South Africa with a late goal by Teboho Mokoena in the 95th minute sealing a 2-0 victory. Other favourites Senegal and Egypt already lost by penalties in the same round in the last few days, meaning that the road to the final now is wide open.
Which teams are still in the tournament
There are still 8 teams competing for a spot in the final, with Nigeria and Angola facing eachother in the first quarter final. Host nation Ivory coast are among the other favourites now to win the cup, especially with the home advantage boost. They first would have to beat Mali in the quarter final to stand a chance. The other 2 quarter finals are between Guinea and Congo-Kinshasha and tournament surprises Cape-Verde and South Africa.
Who are the favourites to win?
On first sight Nigeria and Ivory Coast seem to be the favourites to win this edition of the Africa Cup given that other top teams have all failed to qualify for the quarter finals. But what does the data suggest based on the draw and the recent form of all teams? Based on simulations(opta reference link denk ik) you get the following list.
| Team | Probabilty to lift the trophy |
| Nigeria | 28.8% |
| Mali | 14.7% |
| Ivory Coast | 13.5% |
| Congo | 9.4% |
| Cape Verde | 8..8% |
| South Africa | 8.7% |
| Angola | 8.3% |
| Guinea | 7.8% |
Nigeria are thus considered the favourites by quite a distance but all the other 7 teams have quite similar chances of winning the tournament according to the data. Most of the teams still in the competition therefore will feel like it is theirs to lose
Down below we also show how the bookmakers value the chances for each team, as bookmaker odds are often a good indicator for future events.
| Team | Average Odds |
| Nigeria | 2.88 |
| Ivory Coast | 3.70 |
| Mali | 7.00 |
| Congo | 11.00 |
| South Africa | 12.00 |
| Guinea | 13.00 |
| Cape Verde | 13.00 |
| Angola | 21.00 |
At the bookmakers the predictions are slightly different with Nigeria favourites as well but Ivory Coast closely following as 2nd favourite with almost twice as high chance of winning the cup compared to Mali according to the bookmakers.
All in all, it seems that the competition is Nigeria´s to lose at the moment. Star player Osimhen will be fired up to guide his team to glory for the first time since 2013 when a talented squad featuring John Obi Mikel, Vicor Moses and Ahmed Musa beat Burkina Faso 1-0 in the final.
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