Bankroll Management and Staking Strategy Guide

Introduction

In this comprehensive guide, we will delve deep into the essentials of maintaining a proper bankroll and implementing effective staking strategies. Whether you’re a seasoned sports tipster or a novice in the realm of football betting, this article is your key to long-term profitability.

What is Bankroll Management?

What is a Bankroll?

Your bankroll is perhaps the most important element of your betting journey. It is the total amount of money set aside for wagering. It serves as your betting capital, and its management is crucial for sustained success. Think of it as the foundation upon which your betting strategy is built. If you do not properly manage your bankroll you can lose all your  money despite being a great bettor. Therefore, understanding how to manage your money is key for remaining profitable and improving your betting results. 

How to set a proper bankroll size

The proper bankroll size depends on each person. First of all, your personal financial situation is very important. Never bet with money that you need to pay your expenses, this will significantly increase the emotional impact of your betting and can hurt your results. Secondly, despite betting being an excellent method to create some side income, do not drop all your savings into one account and blindly start betting.

You do want to have a substantial enough bankroll though, firstly to withstand downturns that you do not bankrupt yourself immediately. Secondly, the higher your initial bankroll the higher your profits and the faster your growth trajectory becomes. Therefore, you want to have a sizable bankroll to be able to fully profit from your betting system. 

The right bankroll depends on your personal situation and is the right balance between having a large enough bankroll for sizable growth opportunities but a small enough bankroll that you do not financially cripple yourself. 

How to Enhance Your Bankroll

You may not have too much to set aside for betting at the beginning.  Therefore, to kickstart your betting journey, consider leveraging bonuses and odds boosts offered by bookmakers to give a nice increase in your money.Bonuses offered by bookmakers can provide additional funds, while odds boosts and accumulator insurance can enhance your potential returns and protect against losses. Especially bonus offers, if used properly, can be a great way to increase your bankroll without any risk. 

What is a Staking Strategy?

Your staking strategy is the tactical approach you take when deciding how much of your bankroll to wager on each bet. It’s an integral part of bankroll management, aiming to optimise your bets for maximum returns while minimising risks. Of course you do not bet your entire bankroll on each bet you place, not only are you bankrupt in no time, also you are limited to place one bet at a time, hugely limiting your opportunity for large volumes of bets. Therefore, you need to set aside a small part of your total bankroll for each specific bet. Let’s dive deeper into understanding the various staking strategies.

Flat Betting

Flat betting is a straightforward strategy where you consistently wager the same amount on each bet, regardless of the outcome of previous bets. This approach reduces the risk of significant losses and provides a stable, disciplined method of betting. While your bankroll will grow more slowly, it offers a conservative and consistent approach.

Pros:

• Simplicity and ease of implementation.
• Protects against large losses during downturns.

Cons:

• Slower potential growth compared to more aggressive strategies.

Non flat staking strategies

All other staking strategies that exist involve having different stake levels for different bets. There are several ways to decide your specific stake per bet, we will discuss the most important ones down below. 

Progressive vs Regressive Staking Strategies

First we distinguish between progressive and regressive staking strategies. Both staking strategies involve adjusting your bet size based on previous outcomes. Positive progressions, like the Martingale system, involve increasing bets after losses, aiming to recover previous losses quickly. 

Negative staking strategies, conversely, involve decreasing your bet size after losses. The idea is to minimise losses during downturns and capitalise on winning streaks more conservatively.

Pros and Cons:

• Progressive: High potential for quick recovery but increased risk of substantial losses.
• Negative: Reduces risk during losing streaks but slows down potential recovery.

Confidence Betting

Confidence betting involves varying your bet size based on your confidence level in a particular bet. This strategy requires a self-assessment of your predictive capabilities. A higher confidence level results in a larger bet, while lower confidence warrants a smaller wager. If you have a bet on Manchester United for example, if they are in great form and you are confident of a win you would put a higher stake than in the case when they have been on a bad run and have a lot of injuries. 

Pros:

• Adapts to your assessment of the betting situation.
• Potential for maximising returns on high-confidence bets.

Cons:

• Requires a realistic self-assessment of predictive abilities. Can backfire extra if your predictions are inaccurate. 

Percentage Betting

Percentage betting involves betting a certain percentage of your bankroll on each wager. This strategy adapts to the size of your bankroll, allowing for dynamic betting. It ensures that the size of your bets adjusts according to changes in your overall capital. The percentage that you bet, similar to confidence betting, will become higher when you are more confident of a bet to be successful and will be lower if you are less confident. 

Pros:

• Adapts to the size of your bankroll.
• Provides a systematic approach to managing bets.

Cons:

• The percentage chosen requires careful consideration to balance risk and reward.Similar to the confidence betting strategy, inaccurate predictions can cause double harm. 

Potential Return Betting

Potential return betting focuses on the potential return of each bet, emphasising high-value opportunities. This strategy targets bets with the highest potential returns, aiming to capitalise on lucrative opportunities in the betting market, therefore it has high potential returns but also high potential losses. 

Pros:

• Targets high-value opportunities.
• Emphasises maximising returns on individual bets.

Cons:

• Higher potential for losses due to the pursuit of high-risk, high-reward opportunities.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula designed to optimise the size of your bets for maximum long-term growth. It considers the probability of success and the odds offered by the bookmaker. The formula helps bettors allocate a precise percentage of their bankroll to each wager. The Kelly Criterion is the most optimal staking strategy to maximise long term profitability. However, at the same time it is also the most challenging method to implement. 

Pros:

• Maximises long-term growth when applied correctly.
• Take into account both probability and odds.

Cons:

• Requires accurate probability estimates.
• High complexity; mistakes in calculation can be costly.

Fibonacci Staking

Fibonacci staking is based on the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. In betting, this translates to adjusting your bet size according to the Fibonacci sequence, progressing after losses and regressing after wins. It is thus a combination of a progressive and regressive staking strategy. 

Pros:

• Systematic progression and regression based on the Fibonacci sequence.
• Adapts to changing circumstances in a structured manner.

Cons:

• Potential for substantial losses during extended losing streaks.

Martingale Staking

The Martingale staking strategy involves doubling your bet after each loss, aiming to recover previous losses with a single win. It assumes that a win will eventually occur and cover all previous losses. It is a widely known method in the casino on the roulette table but is very risky and requires a large bankroll to begin with. 

Pros:

• Potential for quick recovery after a win.
• Simple and easy to understand.

Cons:

• High risk of substantial losses.
• Assumes an unlimited bankroll, which is not practical.

As you can see, there is a wide range of staking strategies that you can deploy. Which one you choose depends on your personal preference and your ability to accurately calculate probabilities and assess your predictions. 

At the Hunch Club we use a combination of flat betting, confidence betting and the Kelly Criterion. If you have a sophisticated system that can predict probabilities accurately, percentage betting or Kelly Criterion betting are the best strategies for you. If you just started betting or have less access to data, we recommend you to go for a flat betting strategy, and maybe a confidence or percentage betting strategy for low odds games.  In general we advise to stay away from too aggressive progressive/regressive staking strategies and also from Martingale/Fibonacci staking strategie. 

How bettors fail to stick to their bankroll management

Now that we know the crucial components of your bankroll management and your staking strategy. Now it is important to stick to your betting system. This way you set yourself up the best way for success in the long term.

Not properly Handling Losing Streaks

Losing streaks are inevitable in sports betting. Handle them with resilience and strategic adjustments to protect your bankroll. Avoid the temptation to increase bet sizes significantly to recoup losses quickly. Instead, reassess your strategy and adapt to the changing dynamics.

Not properly Handling Winning Streaks

Surprisingly, winning streaks also require careful management. Avoid complacency and maintain discipline during periods of success to sustain long-term profitability. Consider setting aside a portion of your winnings to protect against potential downturns.

Purely Picking Winners

Relying solely on picking winners without considering odds is a common mistake. While it’s essential to predict outcomes accurately, neglecting the odds can lead to suboptimal returns. Always factor in the odds to make informed betting decisions and use the odds to calculate your optimal stake. Higher odds often imply lower stakes and vice versa. 

Not Using the Odds

Ignoring odds when staking and managing your bankroll can lead to suboptimal results. The odds reflect the bookmaker’s assessment of the probability of an event occurring. Incorporating odds into your strategy enhances your overall profitability and will improve your staking strategy. Especially Kelly Criterion and other proportional staking strategies require odds knowledge. 

Progressive Betting Models

Beware of progressive betting models that advocate increasing your stake after a losing bet. While tempting, this approach can escalate losses and jeopardise your bankroll. It assumes a quick turnaround after losses, which may not always be the case. Similar is the case for regressive betting models. 

Emotional Betting

Emotions can cloud judgement and lead to impulsive decisions. Recognize the impact of emotions on your betting system and adopt strategies to stay rational. Emotional betting can result in chasing losses or overconfidence during winning streaks. Always keep your bankroll  management and staking strategy into account with each bet that you place, this way you make sure that you optimise your results and profitability. 

Not Tracking Results

Failing to track results makes it challenging to assess the effectiveness of your bankroll strategy. Regularly review your performance metrics to refine your approach. Tracking results allows you to identify strengths and weaknesses in your betting strategy. This way you can track how your staking strategy is influencing your bankroll. Also you can timely intervene when problematic patterns occur. 

Not Calculating ROI

Return on Investment (ROI) is a crucial metric for assessing the profitability of your betting endeavours. It measures the efficiency of your bets by comparing the net profit to the total amount invested. The formula for calculating ROI is:

ROI=(Net Profit/Total Amount Invested)×100

A positive ROI indicates profitability, while a negative ROI signals losses. Regularly calculating ROI provides insights into the effectiveness of your bankroll management. It is the single most important metric to look at as a bettor as it highlights your profitability.