European Championship: Group B Final Showdown

After 10 days of riveting football, the group stage of Euro 2024 reaches its climax with a high-stakes Monday night showdown in Group B. In Leipzig, Croatia face Italy in a crucial match, while Albania take on group winners Spain in Düsseldorf.

For Croatia, victory is essential to keep their hopes alive. They must win and hope that Albania do not pull off an upset against Spain. Meanwhile, Italy, the reigning European champions, need only a point to secure their place in the last 16.

What are the scenarios, and who are the favorites to advance in this thrilling conclusion to Group B?

Match 1: Croatia – Italy

Italy are almost through with 4 points after 2 matches, needing just a draw to secure their place in the last 16. Croatia, with only 1 point, must win and hope Albania do not beat Spain. A draw or Italy win sends Italy through, while a Croatia win could see them advance, depending on Albania’s result.

Italy are slight favorites with a 55% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and a Croatia win at 20%. Italy will likely adopt a cautious approach, knowing a draw suffices, but Croatia will be pushing for victory to keep their hopes alive.

Match 2: Albania – Spain

Spain are already through as group winners after two victories. For Albania, currently with 1 point, the situation is more precarious. They need a win against Spain and for Italy to avoid losing to Croatia to have a shot at progressing. A win for Albania coupled with a favorable goal difference scenario could see them advance as one of the best third-placed teams.

Spain are clear favorites with a 70% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw is around 20% and an Albania win stands at 10%. Spain will likely rest key players, but their depth should still pose a significant challenge to Albania, who will be fighting desperately to keep their tournament hopes alive.

Scenarios

Given that both matches have three possible outcomes, there are nine different combinations possible for these two games tonight.

If Italy wins or draws, they are guaranteed to advance to the last 16. If Italy loses and Albania wins, goal difference will determine who progresses. Croatia must win to have any chance of moving forward, but they also need Albania to not win against Spain.

If Albania wins, they need Italy to win or for Croatia not to win by a significant margin to secure second place. If Albania draws or loses, their chances depend on the goal differences and the outcomes of the other matches.

Overall, it looks likely that Spain finishes first, Italy second, and Croatia or Albania third depending on tonight’s results. If Croatia wins and Albania doesn’t, Croatia has a strong chance of going through. If Albania manages a win and Croatia doesn’t, Albania could progress, depending on the goal difference scenarios.