Who will win the title race in Europe’s top 5 leagues
The Premier League traditionally continued over the winter holidays but now we are in mid January, most leagues have restarted again after the winter break. In quite a few leagues we are in for a close title challenge and today we walk you through which teams are the favourites in each of the top 5 leagues in Europe based on the data. (Source Opta)
Premier League
Pep´s blue machine were considered the title favourites at the beginning of the season after taking home 4 of the last 5 Premier League trophies. However, a blip in December which saw them drop 7 points in 4 games has made things very interesting at the top with Liverpool taking the lead at the moment.
Based on simulations of the remaining games with the current team strengths and form the top 4 in the Premier League would look like this with the percentages indicating the probability that they will win the title.
| Team | Probability winning the league | Current Position |
| Manchester City | 59.7% | 2 |
| Liverpool | 35.9% | 1 |
| Arsenal | 3.0% | 3 |
| Aston Villa | 1.1% | 4 |
Manchester City despite their deficit are still considered favourites. Most slip ups they had were in games where Rodri was not playing. With him available and De Bruyne back in fitness they look like they are ready to come back from behind to win the league like they did in some recent seasons. Much will depend on the game at Anfield on the 9th of March, a fixture that could prove to be deciding in the title race. If Liverpool win that game they might just nick the league title this season.
Bundesliga
Can Leverkusen finally beat the Bayern winning streak? Xabi Alonso´s men have been playing fantastic football but have been hit with the absence of their star striker Victor Boniface. However, the recent away win at Leipzig for Leverkusen coupled with the defeat of Bayern at home against Bremen has given Leverkusen hope they can finally win their first league title.
- Leverkusen(57.8%) 1
- Bayern(42,1%) 2
- Dortmund(0.01%) 5
- Leipzig(<0.01%) 4
| Team | Probability winning the league | Current Position |
| Leverkusen | 57.8% | 1 |
| Bayern | 42.1% | 2 |
| Dortmund | 0.01% | 3 |
| Leipzig | 0.01% | 4 |
Leverkusen currently are slight favourites to win the league title over Bayern. If they can get a result in their home game against Bayern on the 10th of February then they could be edging close to a sensational first ever league title.
Ligue 1
Like many other years the French league title will probably be an easy prey for PSG: With star player Mbappe delivering again, the Parisians have seen some early blips in form this season. However, the other teams simply could not keep up with them and are far behind already.
| Team | Probability winning the league | Current Position |
| PSG | 99.1% | 1 |
| OGC Nice | 0.5% | 2 |
| Monaco | 0.2% | 3 |
| Lille | 0.1% | 4 |
The race for champions league places will definitely be more interesting to follow in France this year than the title race.
Serie A
Inter and Juventus have separated themselves from the rest of the pack with some very consistent results over the last few months. Number 3 Milan is already quite far behind whereas Fiorentina can be considered the best of the rest at the moment. Traditionally strong teams such as Roma and Napoli have been very inconsistent and are out of consideration for this year.
| Team | Probability winning the league | Current Position |
| Internazionale | 80.4% | 2 |
| Juventus | 17.6% | 1 |
| AC Milan | 1.1% | 3 |
| Fiorentina | 0.1% | 4 |
Despite Inter and Juventus still very close in the rankings at the moment, Inter are considered clear favourites based on the simulations. They win their matches easier and have a slightly less difficult run in comparison to Juventus. However if Juventus can keep up the performances of recent times then we are in for a tight race.
La Liga
A Leicester City-que fairytail could be happening in Spain where Girona dazzles their opponents with strong and exciting football. Real Madrid however look like they mean business and despite their injuries at the back currently look to be title favourites.
| Team | Probability winning the league | Current Position |
| Real Madrid | 92.0% | 2 |
| Girona | 4.3% | 1 |
| FC Barcelona | 2.5% | 3 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.1% | 4 |
It is Real Madrid ́s title to lose, however, their shaky display against number 20 Almeria at home this weekend also shows their frailties at the back. If Girona can continue putting pressure on Real Madrid week by week, who knows what might happen. We are eagerly looking forward to Real Madrid-Girona on the 10th of February. Who knows what might happen if Girona can get a result in that game!
Tight races up ahead
Some of the usual suspects such as Bayern,Man City,PSG, and Real Madrid are in the mix to win their respective leagues again this year. However, for especially the Bundesliga and the Premier League the title race looks like it could go all the way to the end of the season before we see a definitive winner. Some exciting match ups ahead in the coming months.
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