Avoiding relegation: who is going down in Europe’s top 5 leagues?

Now that we are in the final half of the season it is time to closely look at the decisive developments on the top and bottom of each league. Today we will have a look at the less fortunate teams that are in danger of losing top flight football for the coming season. (Source Opta)

  1. Premier League

The 3 newly promoted teams are also the 3 teams currently on the 3 relegation spots in the Premier League. Each of them have had difficulties adapting to the Premier League and face serious chances of relegation straight back to the Championship. 

The chances of each team to relegate are shown in percentages as well as their current league position. 

TeamProbability of relegatingCurrent Position
Luton Town62.2%18
Nottingham Forest19.8%16
Crystal Palace6.0%15

The only teams that could still help Luton Town stay in the league would be Everton and Nottingham Forest realistically. However, especially given the fact that Everton are in this position mainly because of the 10 points deduction, things are looking grim for Luton Town. 

  1. Bundesliga

In the bundesliga Koln and Union Berlin have been underwhelming to say the least, both teams are fully integrated into the relegation battle. Together with newly promoted side Darmtadt and Mainz and Bochum these teams will fight it out who stays up. 

TeamProbability of relegatingCurrent Position
Union Berlin11.3%15
Werder bremen1.8%13

Union Berlin seems quite secure of at least evading direct relegation, however, they also have a 15.1% chance to finish in 16th spot, which would mean a play off with the play off winner of the 2nd Bundesliga. This match with all the pressure and stress that comes with it definitely is not something you would like to be in. 

  1. Ligue 1

Just as the battle for Champions League spots is very competitive, so is the relegation battle in France with numbers 13-18 all facing a threat of relegation. Olympique Lyon, one of the top teams normally in the league, will definitely fear to still be in the same spot they are at the end of the season as it would mean that they would get relegated. 

Teams most likely to get relegated in France are the following. 

TeamProbability of relegatingCurrent Position
Olympique Lyon18.5%16
Le Havre6.4%11

It will be interesting to see how Lyon will fare and if they will survive this season. It would be a big surprise if a club with the magnitude of Lyon actually would go down. 

  1. Serie A

Salernitana, Empoli, Cagliari and Hellas Verona probably will be the 4 teams that will decide between them which 3 teams go down. The teams just above that seem to be far enough ahead to secure themselves a Serie A berth in the upcoming season as well. 

These are the most likely teams to go down from the Serie A with their current league position. 

TeamProbability of relegatingCurrent Position
Hellas Verona50.2%18

However, all teams 13-17 still should be very cautious as there definitely still is a probability of them going down to the Serie B. 

  1. La Liga

Almeria´s defeat against Real Madrid will be extra tough for them to take given how precarious their situation is at the moment. They look destined to go down to La Liga 2 at the end of the season and the 3 points against Real Madrid would have been excellent bonus points. 

These are the most likely teams to relegate in Spain with their current league position. 

  1. Almeria(98.5%) 20
  2. Granada(90.2%) 19
  3. Cadiz(58.8%) 18
  4. Sevilla(19.3%) 17
  5. Celta de Vigo(17.8%) 16
TeamProbability of relegatingCurrent Position
Celta de Vigo17.8%16
Deportivo Alaves3.8%12

Sevilla, despite winning the Europa League last season and playing in the Champions League, are in for a serious fight. They currently sit 17th and nothing in their recent form is suggesting that they are picking up form. They should be very cautious of Cadiz just behind them to prevent one of the biggest shocks in football to happen. 

Big clubs in trouble 

It will be very interesting to see how renowned clubs such as Everton,Lyon and Sevilla hold themselves up in the relegation races. All teams based on the data look like they will escape the cut this season but you never know how the relegation pressure might affect their performances in the last part of the season.  

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