Champions League Round of 16: Bayern – Lazio

Bayern will have to significantly improve their performance compared to the first match to go through to the quarter finals. In a lacklustre performance in Rome they fell to a 1-0 defeat. Bayern have a history of big home wins after initial first leg away defeats but their current form certainly does not indicate that they will easily walk over Lazio this time. 

Bayern team News

In their pursuit of victory Bayern have quite some personnel problems with a long list of injuries. Fullbacks Boey and Mazroui and winger Kingsley Coman are all set to miss the game due to injury. Sarr will also not appear because of a knee injury while Upamecano is suspended following his red card in Rome. It will be a puzzle at the back for Tuchel, which probably means that the attack has to score a few goals to secure the quarter final spot. However, Sane and Gnabry are doubtful for the game, which would significantly complicate Bayern´s mission. 

Lazio team News

Lazio on the other hand have far less injury worries ahead of the last 16 return clash. The Romans only miss Patric and Rovella but apart from them have a fully fit and available squad with no suspensions to key players. They will be fired up to build on the success of the first leg by getting a result in Munich tonight and send themselves through to the quarter finals for the first time since the season 1999-00. 

Bayern Form

To say that Bayern are struggling is an understatement. A Harry Kane injury time winner against RB Leipzig meant that the Bavarians ended a 3 game losing streak. Long did the joy of the victory not last however, with a 2-2 draw away against Freiburg last Friday putting the German title further and further away. Bayern currently sit a massive 10 points behind league leaders Leverkusen and title prolongation looks nearly impossible. This years Champions League therefore is the only realistic chance for silverware this season. 

Lazio Form

Lazio will be confident going into the match based on their performance in the first leg. However, their recent domestic form definitely is not stellar either, with back to back defeats against Fiorentina and AC Milan mean that last year´s number 2 are in 9th place currently, 11 points behind number 4 Bologna. A new Champions League adventure in the coming season looks less and less likely by the week. 

What do the stats say?

• Bayern have conceded 9 goals in their last 4 league games
• Lazio have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games
• Last time Bayern lost the first leg in a last 16 game, they won their return home game with 7-0

Our verdict

We can definitely see goals coming, with Bayern playing on full attack to repair the deficit and Lazio´s frailty at the back. However, with the problems that Bayern have at the back, we can definitely see Lazio score at least a goal as well.

Over 2.5  Bet: yes