European Championship: Germany – Scotland

The long awaited first game of Euro 2024 is finally upon us. As tradition implies, the host nation will kick off the tournament in the opening game. This year´s host Germany have had a rocky preparation for the tournament but look to have found the way up under new coach Julian Nagelsmann after a terrible string of results under current Barcelona coach Hansi Flick. Scotland were impressive in their qualification group with Spain,Norway and Georgia but have failed to impress in their friendly matches since. However, despite playing away from home, the massive supports of allegedly over 200.000 scots of the tartan army will definitely boost the Scotsmen in their quest for a good result. 

Germany Team News

Germany´s only injury concern so far this tournament has been the fitness of rising star Pavlovic. The Bayern talent has had severe problems with tonsillitis and in the end had to drop out of the euro squad last wednesday. Nagelsmann opted for experienced midfielder Emre Can, who recently lost the Champions League Final with Dortmund, as a replacement. With Pavlovic not the most likely candidate to start at Germany´s midfield and the adequate replacement in the form of Can suggest that the injury concerns at the moment are not too grave for Nagelsmann and his staff. 

Scotland Team News

Steve Clarke can work with a fully fit squad ahead of tonight´s opening match. The preparation campaign for the Scotsmen has been smooth so far in terms of injuries and concerns with all key players fully fit and available for the first game. Clarke will now the severity of the challenge up ahead for his side and will need all his key players at full force to be able to salvage a result from the opening exchange. Especially Man United midfielder Scott Mctominay has proven decisive in qualification games and will hope to be at his best to hurt Germany. 

Germany Form

As mentioned already, the german side experienced a freefall down of grace under the tenure of Hansi Flick, losing regularly to sides that a team of Germany´s stature should comfortably beat. However, 2024 saw a positive twist for this year´s host as they beat both France and the Netherlands in their 2 friendly matches in March. Especially the 2-0 victory against France was very impressive and showcased how much talent the Germans still possess The 2 most recent friendlies saw a draw against Ukraine in a game that Germany should have won after heavily dominating the contest. A 2-1 win against Greece was the last result to come in before the start of the Euro´s, not amazing but good enough in a tournament where only the final result counts.

Scotland Form

After securing qualification for the Euro´s the form of Steve Clarke his men has dropped significantly. With only 2 wins in the last 10 games, times have certainly been better for the Scots. However, displays against Netherlands, France and England, despite disappointing results gave plenty of reasons to be positive for Steve Clarke as they look to reach the knock out stages of a major tournament. 

What do the stats say?

  • Germany beat scotland in 3 of the last 4 h2h matches, but each victory only came with a 1 goal margin. 
  • Scotland have only won 2 out of their last 10 games, with 1 of those wins coming against Gibraltar. 
  • 7 out of the last 9 opening matches in major tournaments saw both teams score

Our verdict

An exciting match to start the Euro´s with as home favourites Germany look to start the tournament on a positive note. On first hand it looks like this should not be too big of a problem for Nagelsmann´s side but Scotland have proben to be very difficult to beat. Especially with the support of 200.000 Scottish fans in Germany they will be inspired to perform. Looks like Germany are likely to win here but we think the margin of victory might not be as high as people think it will be. 

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